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城市化是走向现代化的必经阶段。运用结构突变理论对1978～2010年中国城市化率进行分析。结果表明:1995年为中国城市化率的结构突变点,说明城市化率的增长受到外部冲击的影响,包含时间虚拟变量的Logistic拟合精度明显提高,预测表明到2030年中国城市化率将达到70%左右。
Urbanization is the necessary stage for modernization. Applying the theory of structural catastrophe to analyze the urbanization rate in China from 1978 to 2010. The results show that: 1995 is the sudden change of urbanization rate in China, indicating that the increase of urbanization rate is affected by external shocks. Logistic fitting accuracy including time dummy variables is obviously improved. The forecast shows that the urbanization rate in China will reach 2030 70% or so.