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水资源供需系统具有复杂性和不确定性,且系统环境随时间动态变化,给决策者带来困扰。本文基于多阶段规划框架下的多层离散情境树,引入区间数和概率密度函数表达模型中不同参数的不确定性,建立适用于水资源管理决策的区间多阶段随机规划模型,并以陕西省宝鸡市冯家山水库多用户供水方案决策问题进行实例研究。结果表明,该模型不仅能处理水资源供需系统中的不确定性,而且能够以多情境下的离散形式反映各规划周期中水资源配置的动态决策过程,并对预先制定的决策实时纠正以减少缺水经济惩罚和降低不能达到目标的风险,模型优化结果有助于决策者权衡系统经济效益、相应决策风险和相应的经济惩罚。
Water supply and demand system has the complexity and uncertainty, and the system environment changes dynamically with time, which brings trouble to decision-makers. Based on the multi-layer discrete context tree in multi-stage programming framework, this paper introduces the uncertainties of different parameters in the interval number and probability density function expression model, establishes an interval multi-stage stochastic programming model suitable for water resources management decision, Case Study on Decision Making of Multi-user Water Supply in Fengjiashan Reservoir of Baoji City. The results show that this model can not only deal with the uncertainty of water resources supply and demand system, but also reflect the dynamic decision-making process of water resources allocation in each planning cycle in a multi-situation discrete form and reduce the real-time corrections of pre-formulated decisions Water scarcity economy penalizes and reduces the risk of unattainable goals. Model optimization results help policymakers weigh the economic benefits of the system, the risks associated with decision-making, and the corresponding economic penalties.