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谷子是中国干旱和半干旱区主要的粮食作物之一.它耐旱、耐瘠薄、抗逆性强、适应性广,是未来应对干旱形势的重要战略储备作物.本文基于谷子的157个地理分布点数据,利用中国谷子产量与环境指标的相关性分析,选出10个气候指标、7个土壤指标和3个地形指标,采用Max Ent、EMFA、RF和GAM共4个物种分布模型,分析中国谷子的潜在适宜性分布.结果表明:4种模型均可成功模拟谷子的潜在地理分布,其中,Max Ent模型的模拟效果最好.选用的环境指标中,水热条件对谷子生长最敏感.模型结果结合Arc GIS空间分析模块的结果表明,中国谷子的潜在适宜生长区(最适宜区和适宜区)总面积为55.68×10~4km~2,远远大于当前谷子的实际种植面积,主要集中在东北地区的东北平原、长白山以南与牡丹江流域,华北地区的淮河以北,华中地区汉江以东与大别山以北,西北地区的黄土高原、鄂尔多斯高原南部、祁连山脉东部、天山山脉东部与阿尔泰山脉,西南地区的重庆以北和贵州西部局地区域.
Millet is one of the main cereal crops in arid and semi-arid regions of China.It is an important strategic reserve crop to deal with the drought situation in the future due to its drought tolerance, infertility tolerance, strong adaptability and wide adaptability.This paper is based on 157 geographical distributions of millet Point data. According to the correlation analysis of millet yield and environmental indicators in China, 10 climate indicators, 7 soil indicators and 3 topographic indicators were selected. Using Max Ent, EMFA, RF and GAM 4 species distribution models, The results showed that all the four models could successfully simulate the potential geographical distribution of millet, of which, Max Ent model had the best simulation effect, and the hydrothermal conditions were most sensitive to the growth of millet in the selected environmental indicators. Results The results of ArcGIS Spatial Analysis Module showed that the potential suitable growing area (the most suitable area and suitable area) of Chinese millet was 55.68 × 10 ~ 4km ~ 2, which was much larger than the current actual area of millet, mainly in the The Northeast Plain of Northeast China, south of Changbai Mountain and Mudanjiang River Basin, north of Huaihe River in North China, east of Han River in Central China and north of Dabie Mountain, Loess Plateau of Northwest China, Erdos The southern part of the plateau, the eastern part of the Qilian Mountains, the eastern part of the Tianshan Mountains and the Altai Mountains, the areas north of Chongqing and the western part of Guizhou Province in the southwest.