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[目的 /意义]判断高校图书馆学术型馆藏的数字化趋势,预估纸本馆藏的消亡时间,为高校图书馆服务转型和资源采访提供参考。[方法 /过程]跟踪分析2009、2011、2013-2016共6年文学院教师所引用文献的数字化比例,以折线图描述中外文图书、期刊报纸的数字化趋势;利用对数函数预估中文图书纸本馆藏的消亡时间。[结果 /结论]中文图书2033-2041年间将100%数字化,中文期刊报纸当前已接近100%数字化;2041年,中文学术型文献即无需存在纸本馆藏;网络共享平台成为新兴的知识获取渠道;文献版权、网络共享平台、研究者的文献需求变化都影响文献的数字化趋势。
[Purpose / Significance] To determine the trend of digitalization of academic collections in academic libraries, predict the demise of paper collections and provide reference for the service transformation and resource interview of academic libraries. [Method / Process] To track and analyze the digitized proportion of literature cited by teachers of Arts College in 2009, 2011 and 2013-2016, and to digitize the trend of Chinese and foreign language books and periodical newspapers in the form of a line chart. By using logarithmic function, The demise of the collection of time. [Results / Conclusions] The Chinese books are digitized 100% from 2033 to 2041, and the Chinese periodicals newspapers are now nearly 100% digitized. In 2041, there is no need for paper academic collections in Chinese academic literature; the network sharing platform has become an emerging channel for acquiring knowledge; Literature copyright, network sharing platform, researchers, literature changes in demand affect the digital trend of the literature.