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:为了解山东省自 1962年以来肾综合征出血热 (HFRS)季节发病高峰和疫区型别的演变 ,比较了该省 60年代和 70年代、80年代、90年代疫区型别的变化、秋冬季和春季发病高峰的发病率和病死率变化 ,并对其发展趋势采用灰色模型GM ( 1,1)进行预测。结果表明 :山东省在 60年代和70年代HFRS发病以秋冬季 ( 10月～翌年 1月 )为主 ,其发病数占全年发病数的 89 87% ,病死数占全年的 88 99% ;疫区限于 6个地区 ,疫区型别为姬鼠型。 80年代 ,除秋冬季发病高峰外 ,出现春季 ( 3～ 6月 )发病高峰 ,其发病数和病死数分别占 4 2 78%和 2 1 73 % ;疫区扩大至全省 14个地区 ,疫区型别为姬鼠型和家鼠型的混合型。 90年代情况与 80年代类同 ,春季发病与死亡数分别占全年的 4 3 68%和 37 55% ;疫区型别仍为混合型。预测今后 5年该省HFRS全年、秋冬季和春季发病均呈上升趋势 ,疫区型别为混合型。应考虑同时预防和控制姬鼠型和家鼠型病例发生
: To understand the peak incidence of epidemic-type HFRS and the evolution of epidemic-type patterns of HFRS in Shandong since 1962, the changes in the types of epidemic-type in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s were compared. The incidence of morbidity and mortality in autumn, winter and spring were analyzed. The gray model GM (1,1) was used to predict its development trend. The results showed that in Shandong Province in the 1960s and 1970s, the incidence of HFRS was mainly in the autumn and winter (October - January), accounting for 89.87% of the annual incidence and 88.9% of the deaths in the year. The affected area is limited to 6 areas, and the epidemic area is of the Apodemus type. In the 1980s, except for the peak incidence in autumn and winter, the highest peak appeared in spring (March-June), with the number of cases and the number of deaths accounting for 4278% and 2173% respectively. The epidemic area was expanded to 14 districts in the whole province, The type of area is a mixture of Apodemus and house mouse type. The situation in the 1990s was the same as that in the 1980s. The incidence and deaths in spring accounted for 43 68% and 37 55% of the total in the whole year respectively. The epidemic types were still mixed. In the next 5 years, it is predicted that the incidence of HFRS in the province will increase all the year round, autumn, winter and spring, and the type of epidemic area will be mixed. Consideration should be given to both the prevention and control of murine and murine cases of murine cases