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由于装备研制项目广泛存在着技术风险,其预算成本难以用确定数描述,而现有挣值管理技术通常用确定数描述项目费用基线,忽视了项目的技术风险因素。为此,将技术风险引入挣值管理(EVM)方法,提出了一种装备研制项目的模糊挣值管理(FEVM)改进方法。该方法充分考虑了装备研制中的技术风险问题,利用技术成熟度(TRL)对项目计划成本进行估算,在此基础上,利用模糊数学理论,给出了一种基于可能度的高风险项目的成本和进度的模糊评价标准,并对项目的完工成本(ECC)和完工时间(ECT)进行了模糊预测。最后,通过案例对文中的方法进行了阐述。该方法针对装备研制项目技术风险大的特点,进一步拓展了挣值管理的适用性,对于决策者控制风险、保证项目的费用和进度具有一定指导意义和参考价值。
As equipment development projects have a wide range of technical risks, their budget costs are difficult to describe in a deterministic number. Existing earned value management techniques usually use fixed numbers to describe project cost baselines, ignoring project technology risk factors. For this reason, the technology risk is introduced into the Earned Value Management (EVM) method, and an improved Fuzzy Value Earnings Management (FEVM) method of equipment development project is proposed. This method fully considers the technical risk in the development of equipment and uses the technology maturity (TRL) to estimate the project plan cost. Based on this, using the fuzzy mathematics theory, it gives a high-risk project based on the possibility of Fuzzy evaluation criteria for costs and schedules, and fuzzy predictions for project completion cost (ECC) and completion time (ECT). Finally, the method of the article is elaborated through the case. This method focuses on the technical risk of equipment development projects and further expands the applicability of earned value management. It has certain guiding significance and reference value for decision makers to control risks and ensure project cost and progress.