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2016年12月15日,美联储宣布将基准利率上调25个基点,将联邦基金利率目标区间上调至0.5%~0.75%,并发布了明年三次加息的预期。这一消息引起国际金融市场的动荡,当天美元指数站上102,达到2003年以来的最高位,黄金原油大跌,新兴市场货币也随之下跌,人民币汇率一度跌至6.8950,尾盘跌至低位6.9316元,回落366点。市场对人民币贬值预期加大,同时当天沪深两市全天窄幅振荡,沪指跌0.29%,成交量也较前一日稍有放大。截止2016年12月31日,A股市场两市成交量、两融规模也持续低迷。本文研究的目的就是进一步探讨人民币汇率波动与我国股票市场的联动关系。
On December 15, 2016, the Federal Reserve announced that it will raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points and raise the target rate of the federal funds rate to 0.5% -0.75%. It also promulgated the expectation of three rate hikes next year. The news caused turmoil in international financial markets. The U.S. dollar index stood at 102 on the same day, reaching its highest level since 2003. Gold crude oil plummeted and emerging market currencies also fell. The exchange rate of RMB once dropped to 6.8950 and dropped to late lows 6.9316 yuan, down 366 points. Market devaluation of the RMB is expected to increase, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market narrowed the day around the day, the stock index fell 0.29%, trading volume slightly enlarged the previous day. As of December 31, 2016, the volume of both A-share market and the two-bank financial market also continued to be sluggish. The purpose of this study is to further explore the linkage between RMB exchange rate fluctuations and China’s stock market.