论文部分内容阅读
根据在两种ＣＯ２有效倍增气候变化情景下进行作物模拟试验以及应用有关农业气候指标进行分析的结果，提出了中国东部样带为适应全球气候变化的若干粮食生产对策。在研究区域的北部与南部，分别采用ＵＫＭＯ和ＧＩＳＳ情景进行作物模拟试验，作物模型采用的是在研究区域的２３个样点经广泛检验的ＣＥＲＥＳ模型系列。结果表明：研究区域的粮食生产仍有回旋余地和多种适应性对策可供选择，包括提高复种指数、发展多熟种植制度、调整品种布局、改善灌溉条件、引进和培育新品种、调整种植日期等。所有这些在模拟研究基础上得出的结论，为制定中国今后适应全球气候变化的农业发展战略与对策提供了科学依据。
Based on the results of the crop simulation experiments and the application of agro-climatic indicators under the effective climate change of two kinds of CO2, a number of food production measures to adapt to the global climate change were proposed in the eastern China. Crop simulations were conducted using the UKMO and GISS scenarios, respectively, in the northern and southern parts of the study area. Crop models used a series of CERES models that were widely tested at 23 sampling sites in the study area. The results showed that there was still room for maneuver in grain production in the study area and a wide range of adaptive strategies to choose from including multiple cropping index improvement, development of multi-cropping system, adjustment of variety layout, improvement of irrigation conditions, introduction and cultivation of new varieties, adjustment of planting date Wait. All of these conclusions based on the simulation study provide a scientific basis for formulating China’s agricultural development strategies and countermeasures that will adapt to global climate change in the future.