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本文以中国人寿2011年和2012年的两次高层变更为背景,运用均值回复模型探讨管理层变更与盈余管理之间的关系。本文通过可供出售金融资产减值准备计提额、净利润、总资产净利率和可供出售金融资产减值准备/净利润等指标的行业对比分析,初步推断中国人寿在高层变更前后可能存在盈余管理行为,并利用均值回复模型对该公司可能存在的盈余管理行为作进一步探讨。最后,本文在对高层变更背景下的盈余管理动机进行探讨的基础上,提出了关于盈余管理监管的几点建议。
Based on the two top-level changes of China Life Insurance in 2011 and 2012, this paper uses the mean-value response model to explore the relationship between management change and earnings management. Based on the industry comparative analysis of the allowances for impairment of available-for-sale financial assets, net profit, net margin of total assets and provision for impairment / net profit of available-for-sale financial assets, this paper concludes that China Life may exist before and after the top-level change Earnings management behavior, and use the average return model of the company’s earnings management behavior may be further explored. Finally, on the basis of discussing the motivation of earnings management under the background of high-level change, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the supervision of earnings management.