论文部分内容阅读
宏观经济的变化影响企业战略实施效果,本文构建以状态转换强度为影响因素的企业战略调整优化决策模型.运用随机动态最优控制方法,得到两状态下企业价值解析解,企业当前价值、增长期权和托宾Q分析解,以及相应的最优投资策略.理论研究和数值模拟表明:战略状态不影响企业最优战略调整时机,但影响最优投资支出,高战略水平时,企业生产率更高,为达到并维持企业最优资本结构,企业的投资支出增多;状态转换强度影响企业最优战略调整时机、战略调整瞬时的投资支出、托宾Q值和增长期权-企业价值比值;特别地,相对战略水平阈值是转换概率的单调递增函数,转换概率越大,相对战略水平阈值越大,企业保持当前战略的时间越长.总之,考虑状态转换能够改善未考虑状态转换时制定的战略调整决策和相应投资策略.
The macroeconomic changes affect the implementation of corporate strategy, this paper builds the strategic decision-making model of enterprise strategy with the state transition intensity as the influencing factor.Using the stochastic dynamic optimal control method, the analytic solution of firm value, the current value of the enterprise and the growth option And Tobin’s Q analytic solution, and the corresponding optimal investment strategy.Theoretical research and numerical simulation show that: the strategic state does not affect the timing of the optimal strategy adjustment, but the impact on the optimal investment spending, high strategic level, higher productivity, In order to achieve and maintain the optimal capital structure of enterprises, the investment expenditures of enterprises increase; the intensity of state transitions affect the optimal timing of strategic adjustment, the instantaneous investment expenditure of strategic adjustment, the Tobin’s Q value and the growth option-firm ratio; in particular, The threshold of strategic level is a monotonous increasing function of conversion probability, and the larger the conversion probability is, the larger the relative strategic level threshold is, the longer the enterprise keeps the current strategy.In conclusion, considering the state transition can improve the strategic adjustment decision without considering the state transition The corresponding investment strategy.