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交通运输与经济之间的关系较为复杂,只有两者相互促进,相互协调,才能获得共同发展。运用协同理论及系统协调分析方法建立协调度模型对2002~2011年交通运输与经济系统进行协调度综合评价及协调发展趋势分析,利用非线性自回归分析法建立系统协调度预测模型,并分析了其不同的动态行为:稳定、周期、混沌,最后给出系统协调度的模拟与预测步骤,为交通运输与经济系统协调发展趋势研究奠定理论基础。结果表明:交通运输与经济系统之间协调度在不断上升,且二者之间整体协调发展趋势大致朝协调度稳定状态的方向发展。
The relationship between transport and economy is rather complicated. Only when the two are mutually promoted and coordinated can mutual development be achieved. Using the coordination theory and the system coordination analysis method to establish the coordination degree model, this paper analyzes the coordination degree of the transportation and economy system from 2002 to 2011 and analyzes the trend of coordination and development. The nonlinear autoregressive analysis method is used to establish the prediction model of the coordination degree. Its different dynamic behaviors are: stability, period and chaos. Finally, the simulation and prediction steps of system coordination are given, laying a theoretical foundation for the research on the coordinated development of transportation and economic system. The results show that the coordination between transportation and economic system is on the rise, and the overall coordinated development trend between the two is generally towards the steady state of coordination.