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威慑效应是刑事司法措施实现其犯罪预防功能的重要机制之一。然而,从犯罪学实证研究的总体上来看,威慑刑论得到的经验支持至多是中等程度的。具体而言,刑事司法措施的客观确定性及其主观认知对于社会层面的犯罪率以及个体层面的犯罪行为(意图)具有中等程度的威慑效应;此外,刑事措施的严厉性及其主观认知则很少表现出显著的威慑效应;最后,由于对于刑事措施及时性的经验研究数量明显不足,因而尚无法得出较为确切的结论。总之,由于在威慑刑论的模型下,刑事司法措施的主客观性质所能解释的因变量方差比例通常较低,因而尽管犯罪学经验研究支持刑事司法措施具有边际威慑效应的假设,但是将其作为抑制犯罪的根本对策则缺乏足够的犯罪学证据。
The deterrent effect is one of the important mechanisms by which criminal justice measures realize its crime prevention function. However, as far as the empirical study of criminology is concerned, the empirical support for the theory of deterrence is at least moderate. In particular, the objective certainty of criminal justice measures and their subjective cognition have a moderate deterrent effect on the crime rates at the social level and the criminal acts (individual intentions) at the individual level. In addition, the severity of criminal measures and their subjective cognitions Seldom show a significant deterrent effect; finally, it is impossible to draw any definitive conclusions as the number of empirical studies of the timeliness of criminal measures is obviously insufficient. In summary, since the proportion of the variance of the dependent variable, which can be explained by the subjective and objective features of criminal justice measures, is generally low in the deterrent model, although the criminological experience supports the hypothesis that criminal justice measures have a marginal deterrent effect, As the fundamental countermeasure against crime, there is not enough criminological evidence.