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国际经济波动对我国经济周期的影响主要是通过国际贸易这个渠道实现的,本文在对我国对外贸易波动的特征及与经济周期相关性进行分析的基础之上,通过国际贸易乘数效应具体分析了国际贸易冲击对经济周期波动的影响,其结论表明国际贸易冲击对我国的经济周期波动产生了重要的作用和影响,出口每波动1%,会引发GDP波动0.25个百分点左右,随着我国对外贸易的快速增长,贸易波动对宏观经济的影响会进一步增加。
The impact of international economic fluctuations on China’s economic cycle is mainly achieved through the channel of international trade. Based on the analysis of the characteristics of China’s foreign trade fluctuations and the correlation with the economic cycle, this paper analyzes the effect of international trade multiplier The conclusion of the conclusion is that the impact of international trade has an important effect on China’s economic cyclical fluctuations. For every 1% fluctuation in exports, the fluctuation of GDP will trigger 0.25% fluctuation. As China’s foreign trade The rapid growth of trade volatility on the macroeconomic impact will be further increased.