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十六届三中全会明确提出强调协调发展的科学发展观,而国内现有文献并没有提供一个考察协调发展的分析框架。根据趋同文献的最新进展,本文提供了一个能够同时考察经济增长及其差距的分析框架:增长分布演进。在实证上,本文采用非参数估计的Kernel密度函数发现,在1978～1998年间,我国省区经济增长分布不断向右平移(反映各省区都快速地增长),而且逐渐呈现双峰状(反映增长中的不协调),从而把省区内生地分为两类:左边峰和右边峰;从模拟结果看,左边峰最终会缓慢地趋于消失。这意味着,我国能够实现省区协调发展,但过程较漫长。“中部开发”利于早日实现省区协调发展。
The Third Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee explicitly put forward the scientific concept of development that emphasizes the coordinated development. However, the existing domestic literature does not provide an analytical framework for the study of coordinated development. Based on the latest advances in convergence literature, this article provides an analytical framework that can simultaneously examine economic growth and its gaps: the evolution of growth distribution. Empirically, this paper uses the Kernel density function of nonparametric estimation to find that from 1978 to 1998, the distribution of economic growth in China’s provinces continued to shift to the right (reflecting the rapid growth of all provinces and autonomous regions), and gradually appeared bimodal (reflecting the growth In order to separate the provinces into two types: the left peak and the right peak; from the simulation results, the left peak will eventually slowly disappear. This means that our country can achieve coordinated development of provinces and autonomous regions, but the process is relatively long. “Central Development ” conducive to the early realization of coordinated development of provinces and autonomous regions.