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目的定量分析人口因素和非人口因素对广东省人群疾病死亡变化的影响,为制定可行的防控措施提供依据。方法收集广东省1970-1972年和2004-2005年2次全国死因调查的资料,利用死亡率差别分解法计算出人口因素和非人口因素对各类疾病的贡献值和贡献率。结果 2004-2005年广东省全死因死亡率为658.62/10万,1970-1972年为496.12/10万,死亡率上升均为人口因素的影响,其贡献率为138.48%。感染性疾病及母婴疾病死亡率下降72.92%,完全是非人口因素作用(107.11%)。慢性非传染性疾病死亡率上升122.15%,30年间其占总死因构成由51.04%上升到85.35%,人口因素与非人口因素起协同作用,各占58.64%和41.36%。其中,循环系统疾病、恶性肿瘤死亡率非人口因素作用分别占46.32%和63.54%。结论非人口因素对广东省感染性疾病及母婴疾病死亡率下降起了巨大作用。慢性非传染性疾病对居民健康的威胁越来越大,需结合目前已知的可控非人口因素,采取切实可行的防治措施。
Objective To quantitatively analyze the influence of demographic and non-demographic factors on the change of disease death in Guangdong population and provide the basis for developing feasible prevention and control measures. Methods The data of two national investigation of cause of death in Guangdong Province from 1970 to 1972 and from 2004 to 2005 were collected. The contribution rate and contribution rate of population factors and non-population factors to various diseases were calculated using the method of discriminant of mortality difference. Results The death rate of all causes of death in Guangdong Province from 2004 to 2005 was 658.62 / lakh and from 1970 to 1972 was 496.12 / lakh respectively. The increase in mortality rate was all affected by population factors, with a contribution rate of 138.48%. The mortality rate of infectious diseases and maternal and infant diseases dropped by 72.92%, which was completely the non-demographic factor (107.11%). The mortality rate of chronic non-communicable diseases increased by 122.15%. The proportion of total death causes increased from 51.04% to 85.35% in 30 years. Population factors and non-demographic factors played a synergistic role, accounting for 58.64% and 41.36% respectively. Among them, the non-population factors of circulatory system diseases and malignant tumor death rates accounted for 46.32% and 63.54% respectively. Conclusion Non-demographic factors play a significant role in reducing the mortality rate of infectious diseases and maternal-fetal diseases in Guangdong Province. Chronic noncommunicable diseases pose a growing threat to the health of residents. Practical and preventative measures need to be taken in combination with the currently known controllable non-demographic factors.