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研究经济发展的周期性及其驱动因素,“淡化”经济周期的剧烈波动,对优化调控经济管理、促进经济稳定增长具有重要意义。采用经验模态分解(Empirical Mode Decomposition,EMD)和偏最小二乘回归(Partial Least-squares Regression,PLSR)相结合方法,对1952～2007年湖北人均GDP进行了多尺度分析及不同时间尺度下的驱动因素分析。结果发现:(1)56a来,湖北人均GDP在波动中不断增长,存在准4.7a、准11.2a和准56a3个波动周期和一个先轻微下降后持续递增的趋势项;(2)湖北人均GDP不同周期性波动的共同驱动因子有资本形成总额、原煤产量、水泥产量、进出口总额、旅客周转量,不同因子及其驱动大小分别为准4.7a依次有社会消费品零售总额、居民消费、农林牧渔总产值、钢产量、货物周转量,准11.2a依次有社会消费品零售总额、发电量、农林牧渔总产值、钢产量,准56a依次有居民消费、政府消费、邮电业务总量,趋势项依次有社会消费品零售总额、居民消费、政府消费、发电量、农林牧渔总产值、钢产量、邮电业务总量、货物周转量。湖北及中央政府相关政策制定者应特别关注促进资本积累与形成,有效调控原煤与水泥等主要工业产品产量,制定合理的进出口贸易政策,提高旅客运输效率及运输能力等。
Studying the cyclicality of the economic development and its driving forces, and the drastic fluctuation of the “dilute” economic cycle are of great significance for the optimization and control of economic management and the promotion of stable economic growth. Using the combination of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Partial Least-squares Regression (PLSR), the multi-scale analysis of per capita GDP in Hubei from 1952 to 2007 and multi-scale analysis on different time scales Driver Analysis. The results show that: (1) 56a, the per capita GDP in Hubei Province keeps increasing in the fluctuation with the period of 4.7a, quasi-11.2a and quasi-56a3 cycles and a trend of increasing continuously after increasing slightly; (2) The common drivers of cyclical fluctuations are total capital formation, raw coal production, cement production, total import and export volume, passenger turnover, different factors and their driven sizes, respectively. 4.7a The total retail sales of social consumer goods, household consumption, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and animal husbandry Total output value of fishery, steel output and cargo turnover, quasi 11.2a followed by total retail sales of social consumer goods, generating capacity, total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, steel production, quasi-56a followed by residential consumption, government spending, post and telecommunications business volume, trend items Followed by the total retail sales of social consumer goods, consumer spending, government spending, generating capacity, output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, steel production, the total volume of post and telecommunications services, cargo turnover. Relevant policymakers in Hubei and the central government should pay particular attention to promoting capital accumulation and formation, effectively controlling output of major industrial products such as raw coal and cement, formulating sound policies on import and export trade, and improving passenger transport efficiency and transport capacity.