本文利用石岛湾海洋站实测的连续20年的波高和风暴潮增水的数据资料,计算取得异常水位资料,以二元Gumbel-Logsitic分布模型为基础,考虑波高和增水的相关性,运用联合概率法,推算石岛地区多年一遇设计异常水位组合,并与均取极值方法的结果作对比。结果显示,石岛地区应采用以波高为主的同时性资料为主要分析资料,本文的方法更加接近实际情况,使用方便,结果可靠。 In this paper, the abnormal water level data obtained from the data of 20 consecutive years of wave height and storm surge measured by Shidao Bay Marine Station were used to calculate the abnormal water level data. Based on the dual Gumbel-Logsitic distribution model, the correlation between wave height and water increase was considered. Joint probabilistic method is used to calculate the design abnormal water level combination in many years in Shidao area and compared with the result of taking the extreme value method. The results show that the Shijiazhuang area should be based on wave-based simultaneous data as the main analysis data, the method of this paper is closer to the actual situation, easy to use, the results are reliable.