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目的对河北省麻疹疫情进行时间序列分析,评估当前和历史疫情,并对未来疫情进行预测预警,为制定控制麻疹疫情策略与措施提供新的科学依据。方法利用EViews 8.0对河北省2001年1月-2014年10月麻疹月发病数建立季节自回归滑动平均混合(SARIMA)模型,首先采用取对数、差分等方法对序列进行平稳化,然后进行模型参数的估计、检验,最优模型的筛选,最后进行预测分析。结果最终通过检验的最优模型是SARIMA(0,1,0)(3,1,2)12,表达式为(1+0.66B12+0.18B36)d[ln(mt+1),1,12]=(1+0.87B24)εt;Theil不等式系数=0.13,BP≈0,VP=0.02,CVP=0.98,模型拟合和预测良好。实际值均在预测值的95%可信区间,2014年12月的预测发病数呈下降趋势。结论 SARIMA模型适用于河北省麻疹疫情的短期预测分析,可以即时地评价现行控制措施和预警未来疫情。
Objective To analyze the epidemic situation of measles in Hebei province in time series, evaluate the current and historical epidemic situation, forecast and forecast the future epidemic situation, and provide a new scientific basis for the formulation of strategies and measures to control the epidemic situation of measles. Methods The seasonal autoregressive moving average mixed (SARIMA) model of monthly incidence of measles in Hebei Province from January 2001 to October 2014 was established by using EViews 8.0. The logarithmic and differential methods were first used to stabilize the sequence and then the model Parameter estimation, testing, screening of the best model, and finally forecasting and analyzing. The optimal model finally passed the test was SARIMA (0,1,0) (3,1,2) 12 and the expression was (1 + 0.66B12 + 0.18B36) d [ln (mt + 1) ] = (1 + 0.87B24) εt; Theil inequality coefficient = 0.13, BP≈0, VP = 0.02, CVP = 0.98, the model fitting and prediction are good. The actual values were all within the 95% confidence interval of the predicted value. The predicted incidence in December 2014 showed a downward trend. Conclusion The SARIMA model is suitable for the short-term prediction and analysis of the measles epidemic situation in Hebei Province. It can evaluate the current control measures and alert the future epidemic in an instant.