论文部分内容阅读
以21世纪初近10年的冬小麦(Triticum aestivum)生育期调研数据和气象站点数据为基础,利用“多元逐步回归分析+残差插值”方法,绘制了2000年后华北地区冬小麦生育期等值线图,通过研究两个时期(1971–1980年和21世纪初近10年)华北地区气候资源及冬小麦生育期的变化,探讨了气候变化对华北地区冬小麦生育期的影响。结果表明:(1)华北地区北部年均气温及≥10℃积温增加显著,但降水减少,暖干趋势明显,中部和南部年平均气温和≥10℃积温也呈现增加趋势,但降水增多,日照下降,出现暖湿趋势;(2)除南部江苏、安徽两省冬小麦播种期无明显变化外,华北地区冬小麦播种期普遍推迟,一般在7–10天;冬小麦返青期变化较为复杂,西部地区的冬小麦返青期推迟2–10天,而东南部的山东、安徽及江苏地区冬小麦返青期明显提前,一般在5–7天;华北地区冬小麦的拔节期提前,北部地区幅度较大,为5–10天;冬小麦抽穗期推迟明显,以华北中部和北部最为明显,为10–15天;除华北南部胶东半岛外,华北大部分地区冬小麦成熟期推迟,一般在5–10天;(3)气候要素的波动是引起华北地区冬小麦生育期变化的主要原因:日照时数与冬小麦返青期和拔节期呈显著相关,日照时数减少,冬小麦返青期和拔节期提前,而受年平均气温升高的影响,冬小麦抽穗期有所推迟,积温的增加对冬小麦成熟期有推迟作用,同时降水对冬小麦生长的拔节和抽穗有促进作用。
Based on the data of the growth period of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) in the early 21st century and the data of meteorological stations, the growth period of winter wheat in North China after 2000 is plotted by using the method of “multiple stepwise regression analysis + residual interpolation” This paper investigates the effects of climate change on the growth of winter wheat in North China by studying the changes of climate resources and the growth of winter wheat in North China during the two periods (1971-1980 and early 2000). The results showed that: (1) The average annual temperature and the accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ increased significantly in northern part of North China, but the precipitation decreased and the warm-dry trend was obvious. The annual average temperature and accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ also showed an increasing trend in central and southern China, (2) The sowing date of winter wheat in North China is generally delayed except for the sowing period of winter wheat in the southern Jiangsu and Anhui provinces, generally 7-10 days. The turning-back period of winter wheat is more complicated, and in the western region Winter wheat regreening postponed 2-10 days, and southeast of Shandong, Anhui and Jiangsu winter wheat regreening significantly ahead of schedule, usually in 5-7 days; North China winter wheat jointing stage earlier, the northern region ranged from 5-10 Day; winter wheat heading stage postponed significantly, with the most obvious in central and northern parts of North China, 10-15 days; except in southern Jiaodong Peninsula in southern China, most parts of North China winter wheat maturity is delayed, usually in 5-10 days; (3) climate elements Was the main reason that caused the change of winter wheat in North China. The sunshine duration was significantly correlated with the turning-back and jointing stages of winter wheat, the sunshine hours decreased, the turning-back and jointing stages of winter wheat were advanced, Affected annual average temperature rise, heading winter wheat has been postponed, accumulated temperature increases have delayed effects on mature winter wheat, while precipitation can promote the growth of winter wheat jointing and heading.