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目的探讨北京市朝阳区大气可吸入颗粒物(PM10)、二氧化硫(SO2)、二氧化氮(NO2)与居民呼吸系统疾病每日死亡的相关性。方法 2004年至2008年期间的北京市朝阳区每日死亡数据源于朝阳区疾病预防控制中心,同时收集北京市朝阳区日均SO2、NO2、PM10浓度和日均气温、相对湿度数据。使用广义相加模型(generalized additive model,GAM)分析PM10、SO2以及NO2与呼吸系统疾病每日死亡的关系,并且控制日均气温、相对湿度的影响。结果大气PM10、SO2、NO2每增加10μg/m3,分别导致朝阳区居民呼吸系统疾病死亡增加0.37%(95%CI:-0.02%~0.76%),1.02%(95%CI:0.02%~2.02%)和1.61%(95%CI:0.30%~2.92%)。当两种或两种以上污染物同时引入模型时,污染物对呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响没有统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论本研究结果提示北京市朝阳区大气SO2、NO2浓度可以对居民呼吸系统疾病死亡造成影响,PM10浓度对居民健康影响不明显。
Objective To investigate the correlation between inhalational particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and daily death of respiratory diseases in Chaoyang District, Beijing. Methods The data of daily deaths in Chaoyang District of Beijing from 2004 to 2008 were collected from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Chaoyang District. The daily average concentrations of SO2, NO2 and PM10 and the average daily temperature and relative humidity of Chaoyang District were also collected. The generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the relationship between PM10, SO2, NO2 and daily death of respiratory diseases, and to control the effects of daily average temperature and relative humidity. Results Each increase of 10 μg / m3 of PM10, SO2 and NO2 in the atmosphere resulted in 0.37% (95% CI -0.02% ~ 0.76%) and 1.02% (95% CI 0.02% ~ 2.02%) of deaths of respiratory diseases in residents of Chaoyang District, ) And 1.61% (95% CI: 0.30% -2.92%). When two or more pollutants were introduced into the model at the same time, the impact of pollutants on the death of respiratory diseases was not statistically significant (P> 0.05). Conclusion The results of this study suggest that the concentrations of SO2 and NO2 in the atmosphere of Chaoyang District in Beijing can affect the residents ’deaths from respiratory diseases. The effect of PM10 on residents’ health is insignificant.