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2009年,在极度宽松宏观经济政策刺激下,全球经济逐步走出衰退,主要发达经济体从第三季度起缓慢走向复苏,新兴市场经济体率先反弹。发达经济体就业形势严峻、信贷持续收缩以及财政赤字日益扩大,个别国家主权信用风险凸显,构成经济稳定复苏和长期增长的不利因素。预计2010年世界经济将延续2009年的复苏势头,但是由于扩张性政策退出、部分国家主权债务风险加大,仍不能完全排除复苏进程出现反复的可能性。2009年,危机救援活动取得积极成效。主要发达经济体继续主导国际金融市场格局,新兴市场经济体所占市场份额继续有所上升,全球金融市场信心逐步恢复,国际金融市场回暖。主要股指、大宗商品期货价格和黄金价格等大幅回升;主要货币短期利率显著下降,主要国家中长期国债收益率上升;受避险需求下降等因素影响,美元除在年初走强外持续走弱。2010年国际金融市场走势将受到世界经济复苏进程和主要经济体扩张性政策退出等因素的影响。2009年,面对严峻复杂的国内外形势,中国政府果断应对,继续积极参与国际和区域经济金融合作。在外资继续积极参与中国金融市场的同时,中资也继续积极审慎地参与国际金融市场。今后,中国将适当扩大境外对中国金融市场的参与程度,全面推进跨境贸易人民币结算试点工作,继续积极稳妥地推进金融市场对外开放,协调推进上海国际金融中心建设。
In 2009, stimulated by the extremely loose macroeconomic policies, the global economy gradually stepped out of recession. The major developed economies started to slowly recover from the third quarter and emerging market economies took the lead in the rebound. The employment situation in the developed economies is grim. The continuous credit contraction and the growing fiscal deficit have highlighted the credit risk of sovereign credit in some countries, which constitutes a negative factor for the steady economic recovery and long-term growth. It is estimated that the world economy will continue its recovery in 2009 in 2010, but due to the withdrawal of expansionary policies and the increased risk of sovereign debts in some countries, the possibility of recurring recovery process can not be completely ruled out. In 2009, the crisis relief activities achieved positive results. Major developed economies continued to dominate the international financial market. The market share of emerging market economies continued to rise, the confidence in global financial markets gradually recovered and the international financial markets picked up. The major indices, commodity futures prices and gold prices rebounded sharply. The short-term interest rates of major currencies dropped significantly. The yields of medium and long-term government bonds in major countries increased. Influenced by the fall in hedging demand and other factors, the dollar continued to weaken except at the beginning of the year. The trend of international financial markets in 2010 will be affected by such factors as the process of world economic recovery and the withdrawal of the expansionary policies of major economies. In 2009, facing severe and complicated domestic and international situations, the Chinese government resolutely responded and continued to actively participate in the international and regional economic and financial cooperation. While foreign investment continues to actively participate in China’s financial markets, the Chinese capitalists also continue to actively and prudently participate in the international financial markets. In the future, China will appropriately expand its overseas participation in the financial market in China, comprehensively promote the pilot RMB settlement of cross-border trade, continue to actively and steadily promote the opening up of the financial market and coordinate the promotion of Shanghai’s construction of an international financial center.