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由于冲击地压影响因素较多,且影响因子存在随机性、模糊性、灰度、未知性等不确定性,冲击危险性综合评价时考虑因素不足,导致评价结果不准确。针对此问题,基于云的定性不确定性度量模型和D-S理论的冲突证据合成规则,综合考虑地质条件、开采技术条件、安全管理因素以及其他影响因素,构建了冲击地压危险性综合评价体系,并对峻德煤矿冲击危险性进行综合评价。评价结果与工程实践符合,结果表明:基于云模型和D-S理论的冲击地压危险性综合评价准确、可靠,精度较高,具有较高的应用价值。
Due to the impact of many factors that impact the ground pressure, and the existence of uncertainty factors such as randomness, fuzziness, grayscale, unknown and so on, the comprehensive consideration of the impact of risk factors considered inadequate, leading to inaccurate evaluation results. In view of this problem, a cloud-based qualitative uncertainty measurement model and DS theory of conflict evidence synthesis rules, comprehensive consideration of geological conditions, mining technology conditions, safety management factors and other factors to build a comprehensive evaluation system of rock burst risk, And comprehensive assessment of the impact of Junde coal mine risk. The evaluation results are consistent with engineering practice. The results show that the comprehensive evaluation of rockburst risk based on cloud model and D-S theory is accurate, reliable and accurate with high application value.