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2012年中国小麦连续第9年丰收增产,国内市场供应总体充足,但受饲料需求旺盛、生产成本上升、国家提高小麦最低收购价并启动托市预案等因素影响,国内小麦价格整体稳中上涨。由于国际小麦价格优势明显,中国小麦进口大幅增加,且以澳大利亚饲料小麦为主。2013年中国冬小麦面积稳中略增,但小麦生产成本刚性增长,同时,国家继续提高小麦最低收购价,预计2013年国内小麦价格仍以稳中上行为主。国际方面,受主产国干旱等不利天气影响,2012/13年度全球小麦较大幅度减产,产需格局由2011/12年度的基本平衡转变为产不足需,国际市场小麦价格也相应从2012年上半年的弱势波动,转变为下半年的较快上涨。虽然在高粮价刺激下,进入秋、冬季北半球主产国冬小麦播种面积可能有所增加,但一些主产国气象条件比较复杂,其中最大的小麦出口国美国一些主产区遭遇持续干旱天气,对作物生长不利;加之发达经济体为刺激经济发展,竞相实施宽松货币政策,势必助推国际商品价格上涨,2013年国际市场小麦价格也存在震荡上行动力。
In 2012, for the 9th consecutive year, China’s wheat harvest increased and its domestic market supply was generally adequate. However, due to the strong demand for feedstuffs, rising production costs, the state’s proposal of raising the minimum purchase price of wheat and initiating the market promotion plan, the domestic wheat prices steadily rose steadily. Due to the obvious advantages of international wheat prices, the import of wheat in China has risen sharply, with the feed wheat in Australia being the mainstay. In 2013, the area of winter wheat in China steadily increased slightly, but the production cost of wheat increased rigidly. At the same time, the state continued to raise the minimum purchase price of wheat. It is estimated that the domestic wheat price will continue to dominate the upward trend in 2013. On the international front, due to unfavorable weather such as droughts in the host country, the global wheat production in 2012/13 has been significantly reduced. The production and demand pattern has shifted from a basic balance in 2011/12 to a production shortage. The international wheat prices have also correspondingly dropped from 2012 The weak fluctuation in the first half of the year turned into a faster rise in the second half of the year. Although the sown area of winter wheat in the major producing countries of northern hemisphere may increase in autumn and winter under the stimulus of high grain prices, the meteorological conditions in some major producing countries are rather complicated. In some of the major wheat producing regions in the United States, the largest wheat exporter is suffering from prolonged dry weather, Adversely affecting crop growth. Coupled with the policy of easing monetary policy developed by developed economies to stimulate economic development and boosting the rise of international commodity prices, the price of wheat in the international market in 2013 also has a volatile upward momentum.