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鲁西北地区水资源贫乏,对黄河水的依赖性强;鲁东南地区水资源丰富,出境水量较大,具有较大的水资源开发利用潜力。随着黄河上中游地区用水量的增加,黄河进入山东境内的水量有减少趋势。为缓解鲁西北地区水资源供需矛盾突出的状况,以鲁西北的德州市为例,采用Copula函数法构建了二维、三维联合分布模型,分析了黄河干流来水以及鲁东南、鲁西北地区降水的丰枯遭遇概率及丰枯互补可行性。研究结果表明,黄河、鲁东南及鲁西北地区水资源具有一定丰枯互补性,可为山东省水资源合理配置提供理论依据。
Lack of water resources in the northwest of Shandong Province, the dependence on the Yellow River water is strong; Ludong Southeastern region is rich in water resources, leaving a larger amount of water, with greater potential for water resources development and utilization. With the increase of water consumption in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River, the amount of water entering the Yellow River in the Yellow River has been decreasing. In order to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in the northwest of Shandong Province, taking the Dezhou City in the northwest of Shandong as an example, a two-dimensional and three-dimensional joint distribution model was constructed by using Copula function method. The main incoming water of the Yellow River and rainfall in southeastern Shandong and northwestern Shandong were analyzed. Feifei encounter probability and complement each other feasibility. The results show that water resources in the Yellow River, southeastern Shandong and northwestern Shandong have a certain degree of complementarity, which can provide a theoretical basis for rational allocation of water resources in Shandong Province.