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贸易引力模型是对国际贸易进行实证分析的重要方法。本文以传统贸易引力模型为基础,合理增减部分虚拟变量,包括:共同语言、国界情况、RTA签订情况;基于国际贸易中国对33个伙伴国石化贸易的面板数据,进行引力模型分析;通过比较混合面板模型、固定效应模型和PPML模型得出结论。中国和伙伴国的经济总量(GDP)的增加,会带来贸易量的增加;两国之间的距离的远近与贸易量成负相关关系,即距离会带来贸易成本;共同语言是贸易的促进因素,当两国使用共同语言时,贸易量会明显增加;签订RTA也是贸易的促进因素,如果两个缔结经济一体化安排,则中国对伙伴国的出口额会增加。
Trade gravity model is an important method of empirical analysis of international trade. Based on the traditional trade gravity model, some dummy variables are increased or decreased reasonably, including: common language, national boundaries and RTA signing status; gravity model analysis based on panel data of international trade China on petrochemical trade of 33 partner countries; Mixed panel model, fixed effect model and PPML model conclude. The increase in the economic gross domestic product (GDP) of China and its partner countries will lead to an increase in the volume of trade. The distance between the two countries is in a negative relationship with the volume of trade, that is, the distance will bring about the cost of trade. The common language is trade The promotion factor, when the two countries use a common language, the trade volume will obviously increase. The signing of RTA is also the promotion factor of trade. If the two conclude the economic integration arrangement, the export volume of China to the partner countries will increase.