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风险耦合导致风险发生非线性演化,从而给风险的定量评估带来困难。为给出风险耦合控制的有效对策,基于弹性系数视角界定风险耦合弹性系数概念,以此实现对风险耦合强度的定量测度;基于装备研制项目设计论证环节,从风险测度指标节点裕度角度,采用Arena软件仿真分析单指标和全指标在线性和非线性耦合关系下的系统风险熵和后传风险熵的变化情况。结果表明,全指标非线性耦合会显著改变系统性能,而单指标非线性耦合和全指标线性耦合次之,欲实现风险耦合控制应极力制止全局性的非线性耦合关系。
Risk coupling leads to nonlinear evolution of risk, which makes it difficult to quantitatively assess risk. In order to give an effective countermeasure of risk coupling control, the concept of risk coupling elastic coefficient is defined based on the elasticity coefficient, so as to realize the quantitative measurement of risk coupling strength. Based on the design and demonstration of equipment development project, Arena software simulation analysis of single and full indicators in the linear and nonlinear coupling relationship between the system risk entropy and post-case risk entropy changes. The results show that the full index nonlinear coupling can significantly change the system performance. However, the single index nonlinear coupling and the full index linear coupling are the second, and the risk coupling control should try to stop the global nonlinear coupling relationship.