本文旨在介绍和分析历史上出现的关于危机问题的基本观点。作者认为对再生产和对危机的分析是紧密联系在一起的,而对再生产有三种基本分析思路。第一种观点认为资本主义能够自动实现再生产,自由放任主义传统和右翼凯恩斯传统持这种观点。前者的商业周期理论认为危机总是置身于资本主义再生产的正常过程之外;后者将危机归因于一系列的“政策”失误,只要适当的政府调节就可应对。第二种观点认为资本主义受有效需求不足的限制而无法实现自我扩张,它需要一些外部需求的支持。与之相联系的是保守和激进的消费不足理论与马克思主义的消费不足和比例失调理论。最后一种观点认为,尽管资本主义社会能够自我扩张,但积累过程加深了积累所基于的内部矛盾,直到最终爆发危机:资本主义制度的限制在其内部。这种分析几乎是马克思主义所特有的,包括“利润率下降”和“利润挤压”这两种对危机的解释。作者最后总结了危机理论史暗含的三条教训。 The purpose of this article is to introduce and analyze the basic viewpoints on crisis that have emerged in history. The author believes that the analysis of the relationship between reproduction and crisis is closely linked, and there are three basic analytical approaches to reproduction. The first view holds that capitalism can automatically reproduce itself, the laissez-faire tradition and the right-wing Keynesian tradition hold this view. The former theory of business cycle holds that the crisis is always outside the normal process of capitalist reproduction. The latter attributions the crisis to a series of “policy” mistakes, which can be handled only by proper government regulation. The second view is that capitalism can not achieve self-expansion because of the constraints of insufficient effective demand. It needs some external demand for support. Associated with it are conservative and radical underconsumption theory and Marxist theory of underconsumption and disproportion. The last view holds that although capitalist society can self-expand, the process of accumulation has deepened the internal contradictions upon which accumulation was based until the eventual crisis broke out: the capitalist system was limited within it. This analysis is almost unique to Marxism and includes two explanations of the crisis, such as “declining profit margins” and “squeezing profits.” Finally, the author summarizes the three lessons implied in the history of crisis theory.