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随着航空公司机队规模和航班数量不断增加,作为运输生产核心部门之一的飞行签派工作,对生产组织协调不得力或监控跟踪不及时所引发飞行事故成为当前突出的安全问题。分析由于飞行签派工作差错导致飞行事故的原因及可能引发的各项后果,查找出诱发该类事故各项因素,运用层次分析法建立飞行签派安全评估指标体系,建立基于贝叶斯网络的影响飞行签派各因素间的关系和相互作用,提出了故障树向贝叶斯网络转化的改进方法,基于构建的飞行签派安全评估贝叶斯网络模型,给出了求解顶事件发生后果概率、底事件重要度和事故发生最小割集的算法;最后将该算法应用于实例。
As airline fleet size and number of flights continue to increase, flight dispatching, as one of the core transportation manufacturing sectors, has become the current outstanding safety issue due to ineffective coordination of production organizations or flight accidents caused by the delay in monitoring and tracking. Analyze the causes and possible consequences of flight accidents caused by errors in flight dispatching work, find out the various factors that induce such accidents, set up an index system of safety evaluation of flight dispatching by AHP, and establish a Bayesian network-based The relationship between the factors affecting the flight dispatching and the interaction between them are analyzed. An improved method to transform the fault tree to Bayesian network is put forward. Based on the constructed Bayesian network model of flight dispatching security assessment, , The importance of the bottom event and the minimal cut set of the accident occurred. Finally, the algorithm is applied to the example.