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2010年的七八月份,一场罕见的季风性洪灾袭击了巴基斯坦的印度河,洪水席卷了这个国家五分之一的领土,受灾人口达210万人,摧毁了无数家庭、土地、医院、电站、学校、公路以及供水系统。洪水的规模和造成的损失甚至要比亚洲的海啸、克什米尔的地震和海地的地震加起来还要巨大和惨重。6个月后,即2011年1月31日,巴基斯坦联邦政府正式宣布结束救援工作。然而,灾难却远没有终止。随着灾难所造成的影响的进一步深化,有数百万人还将需要人道主义援助。许多地区—主要是住房及农业用地,依然泡在水中或者是与世隔绝。超过一百万人(或许还有更多未加统计的人)依然无家可归,没有足够的御寒之所。据联合国儿童基金会(UNICEF)估计,巴基斯坦南部地区营养不良的人口比例在洪水前就已经达到警戒值。如今,这一指标已经可以与非洲地区受饥荒影响的国家相比。本文共分三部分。在这篇文章中,目前任教于伦敦国王学院的巴基斯坦水利专家丹尼斯?穆斯塔法对灾难的原因进行了探究,并就可以吸取的经验教训提出了一些看法。他认为,为了追求短期效益而在印度河上修建水坝及围堤的做法是对河流系统的管理不善,这会带来巨大的长期成本。目前需要的是一种可以根据河流本身的自然节律来进行调节的新的水资源管理方式,而不是那种盲目地想要对水资源进行控制和掠夺的方法。
In July and August 2010, a rare monsoon flood hit the Indian River in Pakistan, sweeping the country’s one-fifth territory with 2.1 million people and destroying countless families, land, hospitals and power plants Schools, roads and water systems. The scale of the floods and the resulting losses are even greater and greater than the tsunami in Asia, the earthquake in Kashmir and the earthquake in Haiti. Six months later, January 31, 2011, the Pakistani federal government officially announced the end of the rescue work. However, the disaster is far from over. As the impact of the disaster deepens, millions of people will also need humanitarian assistance. Many areas, mainly housing and agricultural land, are still soaked in water or isolated. More than a million people (and perhaps even more unanswered people) are still homeless and do not have enough shelter. UNICEF estimates that the proportion of malnourished people in southern Pakistan has reached a pre-flood threshold. Today, this indicator is comparable to the famine-affected countries in Africa. This article is divided into three parts. In this article, Denis Mustafa, a Pakistani water conservancy expert currently teaching at King’s College London, explores the causes of the disaster and offers some observations on the lessons learned. In his opinion, building dams and embankments on the Indus River in the pursuit of short-term benefits is poor management of the river system, which can result in huge long-term costs. What is needed is a new approach to water management that can be adapted to the natural rhythms of the river itself rather than the one that blindly wants to control and plunder water resources.