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能源消费结构优化升级和生态环境良好发展是京津冀协同发展战略中的核心问题。能源消费结构与环境之间具有密切的关联,因此文章选取京津冀地区的煤炭、原油和天然气的消费量占比作为能源结构变量(解释变量),废水、工业废气和一般工业固体废物排放总量作为环境变量(被解释变量)。构建向量自回归(VAR)模型,对京津冀能源消费结构与环境变量间的关系进行Johansen协整检验,并通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解进行动态效应分析。结果发现京津冀地区能源消费结构与环境中“三废”的排放总量之间具有显著的协整关系,对“三废”排放总量的影响具有滞后效应,且煤炭、原油和天然气消费量占比对“三废”排放总量影响的贡献程度各不相同。应当充分利用滞后效应和贡献程度,对外部条件冲击实时进行评估和调整,使得京津冀地区能源消费和环境之间趋于均衡发展。
The optimization and upgrade of energy consumption structure and the sound development of ecological environment are the core issues in the coordinated development strategy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Therefore, the paper chooses the proportion of coal, crude oil and natural gas consumption in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as the energy structure variable (explanatory variable), total discharge of waste water, industrial waste gas and general industrial solid waste The amount as an environment variable (explained variable). A vector autoregression (VAR) model was constructed to test the relationship between Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei energy consumption structure and environmental variables by Johansen cointegration test. The dynamic response was analyzed by impulse response function and variance decomposition. The results show that there is a significant cointegration relationship between the energy consumption structure and the total discharge of “three wastes” in the environment in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the lag effect on the total discharge of “three wastes”, and the coal, crude oil and The contribution of natural gas consumption to the total emissions of “three wastes” varies to a varying degree. We should make full use of the lag effect and the degree of contribution to assess and adjust the impact of external conditions in real time so that the energy consumption and environment in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will tend to develop in a balanced manner.