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目的 了解日本血吸虫卵计量变异特征 ,建立、检验和应用虫卵计量变异的随机模型。方法 在了解虫卵计量变异的基础上建立和检验虫卵计量变异的数学模型 ,应用数学模型绘制估计人群“实际”感染率的袖珍图。结果 湖滩地区居民以从事渔业生产为最主要的感染方式 ,垸内水网地区以从事农业生产为主要感染方式。虫卵在粪中的分布为非随机分布 ,从粪便的头部至尾部、从外层至中心虫卵计数逐渐降低。虫卵计量在不同人群间、人群内、个体间、个体内、粪便内的变异特征均可用负二项分布来描述。以负二项分布理论为基础对虫卵计量变异建立了随机模型 ,并绘制了可以估计人群“实际”感染率的袖珍图。结论 可用负二项分布描述虫卵计量变异特征 ,建立数学模型 ,绘制可以估计人群“实际”感染率的袖珍图。
Objective To understand the characteristics of egg metering variation in Schistosoma japonicum, and to establish, test and apply a stochastic model of egg variation. Methods Based on the understanding of the quantitative variation of the eggs, a mathematical model was established and tested for the quantitative measurement of the eggs. The mathematical model was used to draw the pocket map for estimating the actual infection rate of the population. Results Residents in Lake Beach engaged in fishery production as the most important way of infection. The water network in the embankment was mainly engaged in agricultural production. The distribution of eggs in feces was nonrandom distribution, and from the head to the tail of the feces, the egg count gradually decreased from the outer layer to the center. Egg measurement in different populations, within the population, individuals, individuals, within the fecal variation characteristics can be described by negative binomial distribution. Based on the negative binomial distribution theory, a stochastic model was established for the quantitative measurement of the ovum and a pocket map for estimating the “actual” infection rate of the population was drawn. Conclusion The negative binomial distribution can be used to describe the characteristics of the quantitative measurement of ovum eggs and to establish a mathematical model to draw a pocket map that can estimate the “actual” infection rate of the population.