论文部分内容阅读
目的用时间序列建立住院人数线性回归模型,预测2012年、2013、2014、2015年的住院人数。方法选取石狮市医院1997-2011年住院人数,用最小二乘法建立线性模型,并对模型进行回归分析。结果回归模型为Y=3892+2730.X,方差分析结果P=0.0038<0.05,可以认为住院人数与年次有直线回归关系。石狮市医院2012年、2013、2014、2015年的住院人数点预测分别为36206、37798、39390、40981;区间预测为31553-40860、32689-42907、33815-44965、34933-47030。结论通过预测住院人数为医院的工作计划和决策提供依据,使卫生资源实行优化配置。
Objective To establish a linear regression model of inpatient numbers using time series to predict the number of inpatients in 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. Methods The number of hospitalizations in Shishi Hospital from 1997 to 2011 was selected. The linear model was established by least square method and the regression analysis was carried out. Results The regression model was Y = 3892 + 2730.X.Analysis of variance P = 0.0038 <0.05, we can think that there is a linear regression relationship between the number of hospitalizations and the number of years. Shishi City Hospital in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, the number of hospitalizations were 36206,37798,39390,40981 point estimates; range prediction is 31553-40860,32689-42907,33815-44965,34933-47030. Conclusions The prediction of inpatients provides the basis for the hospital’s work plan and decision-making, so that the optimal allocation of health resources can be implemented.