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中国作为全球第一工业大国,在能源价格牛市时期的贸易中常常处于“挨宰”的被动地位,到了熊市则谈判地位大大改善。资源禀赋决定了我国天然气需求很大一部分要靠进口。进口需求巨大,加之天然气价格波动远高于石油,从数量和价格两方面保障进口天然气供给的任务由此更加凸显。为改善谈判地位,中国需要推进天然气进口来源和方式多样化,管道气和液化气并举。小国无法兼顾进口规模效益和进口来源、方式多样化,作为大进口国的中国完全可以兼顾。在中长期内,任何一个大供应方如果忽视了这一点,企图向中国索取过高的要价而朝三暮四,都只能在这个未来世界最大市场上被边缘化。输气管道固定资产投资浩大,涉及规模巨大的跨境基础设施建设运营,且因资产专用性强而更容易遭到途经国家不可预测风险因素干扰;液化天然气则不涉及跨境基础设施建设运营,资产专用性相对较低,因此扩大液化气进口对改善天然气贸易地位不可或缺。天然气产业链投资潜力巨大。属于制造业范畴的投资机会如天然气管道钢材、管道运输设备、天然气液化设备、液化天然气船制造、车船液化气发动机、车船液化气动力改造等也异常丰富。
As the world’s largest industrial power, China is often in a passive position in the trade of energy price bull market, and when it reaches a bear market, its negotiation status is greatly improved. Resource endowments determine that a large part of China’s natural gas demand depends on imports. The huge import demand, coupled with the fact that natural gas prices fluctuate far more than oil, has made the task of ensuring the supply of imported natural gas from both quantitative and price stand out. In order to improve the status of negotiations, China needs to diversify the sources and methods of natural gas imports, with both pipeline gas and liquefied gas. Small countries cannot take into account the benefits of importing economies of scale, the sources of imports, and the ways in which they are diversified. As a large importer, China can fully take care of both. In the medium- and long-term, if any large supplier ignores this and attempts to demand excessively high prices from China, it will only be marginalized in the world’s largest market in the future. The investment in fixed assets of gas transmission pipelines is huge, involving large-scale cross-border infrastructure construction and operation, and because of the strong assets specificity, it is more vulnerable to interference from unpredictable risk factors of the country; liquefied natural gas does not involve cross-border infrastructure construction and operation. Asset specificity is relatively low, so the expansion of liquefied gas imports is indispensable for improving the trading position of natural gas. The investment potential of the natural gas industry chain is huge. Investment opportunities in the category of manufacturing such as natural gas pipeline steel, pipeline transportation equipment, natural gas liquefaction equipment, LNG ship manufacturing, vehicle-ship liquefied gas engines, and liquefaction and aerodynamic transformation of vehicles and ships are also extremely abundant.