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出口退税政策调整产生效果的前提是退税率调整首先必须要对行业出口产生影响。本文对纺织服装行业退税率调整与行业年度和月度出口数据分别进行了(格兰杰)因果关系检验,发现退税率调整对行业出口的影响最多只能维持半年,长期来看,退税率的改变与行业出口间不存在统计意义上的因果关系,因而退税率的频繁调整是无益的,应向应退尽退的中性出口退税政策回归。
The precondition for the adjustment of the export tax rebate policy is that the tax rebate rate adjustment must firstly have an impact on the export of the industry. This paper examines the causal relationship between the tax rebate rate adjustment and the industry annual and monthly export data (Granger) respectively and finds that the impact of tax rebate rate adjustment on the export of the industry can only be maintained for at most half a year. In the long run, the tax rebate rate change There is no statistical causal relationship with the export of the industry. Therefore, the frequent adjustment of the tax rebate rate is not helpful and should be returned to the neutral export tax rebate policy that should be withdrawn from service.