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重庆地区属于我国降雨型滑坡高易发区,目前气象部门采用的滑坡灾害气象预报模型属于统计模型,适用于滑坡灾害区域性预警预报,不能实现对单体滑坡发生概率的气象预报。引入考虑强降雨作用下土质滑坡表层的最大入渗深度,并考虑滑坡体后缘拉张裂缝水压力,修正了工程上常用于确定滑坡稳定系数及滑坡推力的传递系数法;结合采用有效累计降雨量和当日最大小时降雨量两个指标建立的降雨型滑坡统计预报模型,构建了重庆地区降雨型滑坡统计-降雨入渗耦合预报模型,该模型利用滑坡发生指数将滑坡预报等级分为5级,分别表示滑坡发生的可能性为极小、小、较大、大和极大,通过室内模型试验验证了该模型的合理性。实用中,可将该模型嵌入重庆市地质灾害气象预报系统中,实现对重庆境内典型单体滑坡在强降雨条件下发生可能性的气象预报。
Chongqing belongs to the high-prone area with rainfall-type landslide in our country. At present, the weather forecasting model adopted by the meteorological department belongs to the statistical model and is suitable for the regional early-warning and forecast of landslide hazard, and can not realize the meteorological forecast of the probability of a single landslide. The maximum infiltration depth of soil landslide under strong rainfall is considered and the water pressure in the trailing edge of landslide body is taken into account. The transfer coefficient method commonly used to determine the landslide stability coefficient and landslide thrust is modified. Combined with effective cumulative rainfall And the maximum hourly rainfall on the day of the two indicators rainfall rainfall type landslide statistical forecast model to build Chongqing area rainfall - type rainfall - infiltration coupling forecasting model, the model uses the landslide occurrence index landslide forecast grade is divided into five levels, Respectively, indicating that the possibility of landslide is extremely small, small, large, large and extremely large. The indoor model test proves the rationality of the model. In practical application, this model can be embedded into the weather forecasting system of Chongqing Municipality to realize the meteorological forecast of the possibility of occurrence of typical single landslides in Chongqing under heavy rainfall.