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目的分析2009-2010年北京市手足口病重症率的变化并研究其影响因素。方法分析北京市不同年度、地区、职业、户籍人群手足口病发病数及重症数双对数图的特征。结果 2009-2010年北京市手足口病重症率随患病人数增加而上升,可能与随疫情进展,更多易感人群如散居、流动儿童等被累及有关。2010年北京市手足口病重症率高于2009年,分析可能与2010年EV71及其他肠道病毒感染构成增加(2=176.95,P<0.001)有关。结论双对数图能实时提示手足口病病原体及感染人群的变化,并根据感染者数来预测其重症数,可在实际工作中推广使用。
Objective To analyze the changes of severe hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing from 2009 to 2010 and study its influencing factors. Methods The incidence of HFMD and the logarithmic hyperbolic logarithm of severe cases in different years, regions, occupations and household registration population in Beijing were analyzed. Results The incidence of HFMD in Beijing from 2009 to 2010 increased with the increase of the number of affected persons, which may be related to the progress of the epidemic, more susceptible people such as diaspora, migrant children and so on. The incidence of HFMD in Beijing was higher in 2010 than in 2009, and the analysis may be related to the increase of EV71 and other enterovirus infections in 2010 (2 = 176.95, P <0.001). Conclusion Double logarithmic graph can prompt the changes of pathogen and infected population of HFMD in real time, and predict the severity of HFMD according to the number of infected persons, which can be used in practical work.