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为了定量分析城镇化水平提高、居民出行特征变化等因素对中国特大城市客运交通能耗变化的影响,根据完全分解理论,构建了两阶段分解模型,并用于广州、北京和上海的案例中。结果表明:多数因素都不同程度导致了城市客运交通能耗的增长,类似广州这样的特大型城市处于以城镇化水平提高为最主要驱动的典型时期,类似北京和上海这样的超大型城市则处于由以城镇化水平提高转向以机动化水平提高和居民出行需求增长为最主要驱动的过渡时期。
In order to quantitatively analyze the impact of the factors such as the level of urbanization and the change of residents’ travel characteristics on the energy consumption of passenger transport in mega cities, a two-stage decomposition model is constructed according to the theory of complete decomposition and used in the cases of Guangzhou, Beijing and Shanghai. The results show that most of the factors lead to the increase of urban passenger traffic energy consumption to varying degrees. The mega-cities such as Guangzhou are in the typical period with the increase of urbanization as their main driving force. The mega-cities like Beijing and Shanghai are in From the improvement of the level of urbanization to that of the transitional period that is mainly driven by the enhancement of the level of motorization and the increase of residents’ demand for travel.