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将KMV模型首次引入项目负债规模研究,通过对其参数的修正及改进,使之更符合在项目中的运用。建立在理论违约概率的基础上,将信用风险与负债规模相联系,得出项目安全负债规模比例的数值解,从而确定项目的资金结构。对影响项目负债规模的各参数进行敏感性分析,得到敏感性排序,其中项目价值的波动率、期望增长率的敏感性最大。该研究对项目负债规模或资金结构的确定具有重要的理论指导意义和实际应用价值。
The KMV model was first introduced into the project liability scale research, through the amendment and improvement of its parameters to make it more in line with the project. Based on the theoretical probability of default, the credit risk is related to the scale of debt, and the numerical solution of the scale of project security liabilities is obtained, so as to determine the fund structure of the project. Sensitivity analysis is made on each parameter that affects the scale of project liabilities, and sensitivity is obtained. Among them, the project value volatility and the expected growth rate are the most sensitive. The study of the scale of the project liabilities or the determination of financial structure has important theoretical significance and practical value.