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为充分认识人口结构演变与区域经济发展之间的关联关系,该文根据第4、5、6次人口普查以及甘肃省发展年鉴的人口与经济数据,对甘肃省各县(市)人口结构时空演变进行分析;且运用灰色系统理论对人口结构与区域经济的关联度做进一步研究。结果表明:近年来,甘肃省人口增长明显减缓,人口老龄化趋势显著,人口结构趋于失衡,人口红利逐步消失,现行生育政策负面效应开始显现;老年人口、城镇人口空间异质性明显;人口结构与经济结构综合关联度以较高和高为主,关联度在时间序列上具有波动性。
In order to fully understand the relationship between the evolution of population structure and regional economic development, this paper, based on the population data and economic data of the 4th and 6th and 6th population censuses and Gansu Development Yearbook, Evolution and analysis; and using gray system theory to further study the relationship between population structure and regional economy. The results show that in recent years, the population growth in Gansu Province has obviously slowed down, the trend of population aging is remarkable, the population structure tends to be unbalanced, the demographic dividend gradually disappear, and the negative effects of the current birth policy begin to appear. The spatial heterogeneity of population in the aged and urban areas is obvious. The comprehensive correlation of structure and economic structure is higher and higher, and the degree of correlation has fluctuation in time series.