研究了国际铁矿石价格的周期性及其对矿业经营的影响。研究表明,铁矿石不变价格的周期长为29a,期望价格41.5美元/t,波幅大于45%。以期望价格为基准,用3a平均价测不准矿业权价值是大概率事件,概率为22/29。据此认为,国际铁矿业战略经营和矿业权价值评估应重视矿业周期的影响。 Studied the cyclicality of international iron ore price and its impact on mining business. Research shows that the constant price of iron ore has a long period of 29 years, the expected price is 41.5 US dollars / t and the volatility is more than 45%. Based on the expected price, the value of the mining right, which is not determined by the average price of 3a, is a large probability event with a probability of 22/29. Accordingly, the strategic management of the international iron ore industry and the value assessment of the mining rights should pay attention to the impact of the mining cycle.