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[目的]分析广东省四会市1987~2009年主要恶性肿瘤患者的生存状况,为肿瘤的预后评价和防控提供科学依据。[方法]收集并整理1987~2009年四会市全人群肿瘤登记数据共11 456例,随访截止日期为2014年12月31日。用Log-rank检验对各年龄组、性别组和各主要癌症不同确诊年份段的生存率进行比较。采用Cox回归模型进行多因素分析。[结果]23年间,四会市鼻咽癌、胃癌、结直肠癌、乳腺癌、肝癌、肺癌、宫颈癌、子宫体癌、甲状腺癌9种恶性肿瘤的5年OS有明显提高,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);而食道癌、膀胱癌、淋巴瘤、白血病的5年生存率在这3个年份阶段中的变化无统计学差异。各确诊年份段的女性生存率均高于男性,女性死亡风险是男性的0.77倍;≥70岁年龄组的死亡风险是<40岁组的2.23倍;2007~2009年的死亡风险是1987~1996年的0.71倍。[结论 ]23年来,四会市全人群恶性肿瘤生存率有所提高,但与国外发达国家及国内其他地区比较仍处于较低水平,提示应重视其他主要癌症的早诊早治工作。
[Objective] To analyze the survival status of major malignant tumor patients from 1987 to 2009 in Sihui City, Guangdong Province, and provide a scientific basis for the prognosis evaluation and prevention and control of tumor. [Methods] A total of 11 456 cases of cancer registration data were collected and sorted from 1987 to 2009 in Sihui City. The deadline for follow-up was Dec. 31, 2014. Log-rank test was used to compare survival rates of different age groups, sex groups and different major cancers in different confirmed years. Cox regression model was used for multivariate analysis. [Results] The 5-year OS of the 9 malignant neoplasms in Sihui City was significantly increased over the 23 years, with statistically significant differences among the 9 malignant neoplasms of NPC, gastric cancer, colorectal cancer, breast cancer, liver cancer, lung cancer, cervical cancer, uterine body cancer and thyroid cancer (P <0.05). However, the 5-year survival rates of esophageal cancer, bladder cancer, lymphoma and leukemia did not change statistically in these three years. The women’s survival rates in all confirmed years were higher than those in men, and the risk of death in females was 0.77 times that of males. The risk of death in ≥70 years old group was 2.23 times of that in <40 years old group. The risk of death in 2007-2009 was 1987-1996 0.71 times of year. [Conclusion] The overall survival rate of malignant tumor in Sihui City has improved over the past 23 years, but it is still at a relatively low level with developed countries in other regions and other regions in China, suggesting that early diagnosis and treatment of other major cancers should be emphasized.