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目前,许多河流已进入梯级开发阶段,为了开展梯级库群的安全评价,本文在分析梯级库群系统特性的基础上,根据上下游水库之间存在的失效影响关系,建立了梯级库群系统的连锁失效概率模型。连锁失效概率模型中最重要的分析在于对联系度的定义与计算。在分析过程中,引入了集对分析理论提出的联系度思想,并将其转化为联系度距离。由于梯级库群系统中体现各水库之间联系的指标具有在某一区间内变化的特性,故引入数学中区间数的相关理论,推导了基于联系距离的区间TOPSIS计算方法,最终计算出连锁失效概率模型中的联系度。文中以“小湾–糯扎渡”四梯级库群为例,经初步分析得出,在考虑上下游失效联系的前提下,此库群系统中大朝山的失效风险较大。本文的研究思路和方法将为梯级库群系统的整体安全分析提供理论基础,为梯级库群系统优化设计提供一定的理论参考。
At present, many rivers have entered the stage of cascade development. In order to carry out the safety assessment of cascade banks, based on the analysis of the system characteristics of cascade banks, according to the relationship between the failure of upstream and downstream reservoirs, Chain Failure Probability Model. The most important analysis in the probability model of chain failure lies in the definition and calculation of the contact degree. In the process of analysis, the idea of contact degree proposed by set-pair analysis theory is introduced and transformed into the contact degree distance. Because the index in the cascade reservoir system which reflects the connection between reservoirs has the characteristics of changing in a certain interval, the relevant theory of interval number in mathematics is introduced, and the interval TOPSIS calculation method based on the contact distance is deduced, and finally the chain failure Degree of connection in probability model. Taking the “Siu Wan - Nuozhadu” four-step reservoir group as an example, the preliminary analysis shows that under the premise of considering the failure of the upstream and downstream links, the Dachaoshan risk in the reservoir group system is greater. The research ideas and methods in this paper will provide a theoretical basis for the overall safety analysis of cascade reservoir systems and provide some theoretical references for the optimal design of cascade reservoir systems.