一、丰收悖论设想某年大自然对农业格外恩惠,寒冷的冬季冻死了所有的害虫,适于播种的春季早早到来,没有发生恶性霜冻,细雨滋润了成长中的禾苗,阳光灿烂的十月使得收割顺利并得以运往市场。年终时,农民一家愉快地坐下来计算一年的收入,但他们将会大吃一惊:好年景和大丰收反而降低了他们的收入。这是怎么一回事呢?答案就在于人们对于食品的需求弹性。小麦、玉米等基本粮食作物缺乏弹性,对于这些生活必需品而言,消费者对于价格的变动反应迟钝。而这意味着收成好时,农民的总收益低于收成不好的时候。农业丰收,农作物供给量增加,反而降低了农作物价格。但价格下跌却并不会使需求量增加很多。原因就在于食品缺乏价格弹性,好收成常常伴随着低收益。二、节俭悖论 I. The harvest public opinion envisages nature’s exceptional favor for agriculture in one year and the freezing of all pests in the cold winter. The arrival of spring suitable for sowing has come early, no vicious frost has occurred, and the rain has nourished the growing seedlings. The sun is shining. In October, the harvest was made smooth and shipped to the market. At the end of the year, the peasant family sat down happily to calculate their income for a year, but they would be surprised: The good years and the bumper harvest reduced their income. How is this happening? The answer lies in the elasticity of people’s demand for food. The basic food crops such as wheat and corn are inflexible. For these necessities, consumers are unresponsive to price changes. This means that when the harvest is good, the total income of farmers is lower than when the harvest is not good. Agricultural harvests and increased crop supply have reduced crop prices. However, the decline in prices does not increase demand much. The reason is that food lacks price elasticity, and good harvests are often accompanied by low returns. Second, the paradox