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河北省日益尖锐的水资源供需矛盾已经成为影响社会经济持续发展和生态建设的主要制约因素。论文在河北省宏观经济水资源和水环境投入产出表基础上,建立了产业结构的区间数多目标优化模型,确立了3个目标函数以及相应的约束条件,并对产业结构的优化调整进行了模型计算,结合相关政策分析设计了产业结构调整方案,即适当扩大农林牧渔业、食品加工业、木材加工业、非金属制品业、服务业、建筑业以及商业饮食业所占比重;对于开采洗选业、金属加工业、纺织服装业、造纸印刷业以及能源供应业等行业可适当减少产值规模,其他行业基本不变。执行调整方案后,预计产业增加值最高可达55 181.708亿元,最低为51 191.163亿元,平均值为53 186.436亿元;用水总量可控制在151.67×108~176.02×108t范围内,COD排放量则可控制在117.31×104~136.80×104t之间。调整后的产业机构更能适应河北省可持续发展的需要。
The increasingly acute contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in Hebei Province has become a major constraint on the sustainable social and economic development and ecological construction. Based on the input and output tables of macroeconomic water resources and water environment in Hebei Province, the paper establishes a multi-objective optimization model of interval number for industrial structure, establishes three objective functions and corresponding constraints, and optimizes and adjusts the industrial structure The model calculation, combined with relevant policy analysis and design of industrial restructuring program, that is, appropriately expand the proportion of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food processing industry, timber processing industry, non-metallic products industry, service industry, construction industry and commercial catering industry; for mining Industries such as the washing and dressing industry, the metal processing industry, the textile and clothing industry, the paper and printing industry, and the energy supply industry can appropriately reduce the output value scale while other industries remain basically unchanged. After the implementation of the adjustment program, it is estimated that the added value of the industry can reach a maximum of 551,870,800,000 yuan, the lowest is 51,191,663,000 yuan, with an average value of 53,186.36 billion yuan; the total amount of water used can be controlled within the range of 151.67 × 108- 176.02 × 108t, and COD discharge The amount can be controlled between 117.31 × 104 ~ 136.80 × 104t. The adjusted industrial structure can better meet the needs of sustainable development in Hebei Province.