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[目的]研究江苏省南通市通州区细菌性痢疾发病季节特征,预测发病趋势,为科学防治提供依据。[方法]采用集中度、圆形分布统计方法,对通州区2006—2013年细菌性痢疾发病情况进行季节性分析,并运用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测发病趋势。[结果]通州区细菌性痢疾发病有一定的季节性,发病高峰为4月中旬至10月中旬。根据发病趋势预测方程,2014和2015年预测发病率分别为3.53/10万和4.49/10万。[结论]若无较大规模的疫情暴发,2014和2015年通州区细菌性痢疾发病率可能会略有上升,应以流行季节为重点,落实综合预防控制措施。
[Objective] The study aimed to study the seasonal characteristics of bacterial dysentery in Tongzhou District, Nantong City, Jiangsu Province, and to predict the trend of the incidence and provide the basis for scientific prevention and treatment. [Method] The incidence of bacterial dysentery in Tongzhou District from 2006 to 2013 was analyzed by using the method of concentration and circular distribution. The gray system GM (1,1) model was used to predict the incidence of the disease. [Results] The incidence of bacterial dysentery in Tongzhou District was somewhat seasonal with peak incidence from mid-April to mid-October. According to the incidence trend prediction equation, the predicted incidence rates in 2014 and 2015 were 3.53 / 100,000 and 4.49 / 100,000 respectively. [Conclusion] The incidence of bacillary dysentery in Tongzhou District may increase slightly in 2014 and 2015 without a large-scale outbreak of epidemic. Comprehensive prevention and control measures should be implemented with a focus on epidemic season.