论文部分内容阅读
以浙江省2001年到2013年11个地级市的面板数据为基础,分析社会消费品零售总额和经济增长的互动关系。统计发现,以金融危机为分水岭,之前经济增长速度明显快于消费品的零售总额增长速度,之后浙江各地市的经济增长速度开始放缓,并且多数年份慢于消费品的零售总额增长速度。构建面板数据模型发现,浙江0.9788%的社会消费品零售增长大约可以带动1%的经济增长,并且两者之间存在一个微妙的长期均衡关系。
Based on the panel data of 11 prefecture-level cities from 2001 to 2013 in Zhejiang Province, this paper analyzes the interaction between total retail sales of social consumer goods and economic growth. Statistics show that with the financial crisis as a watershed, the previous economic growth rate was significantly faster than the growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods. Afterwards, the economic growth of all cities in Zhejiang began to slow down, and in most of the years, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was slower. Building panel data model found that 0.9788% of retail sales of social consumer goods in Zhejiang Province can drive about 1% economic growth, and there is a delicate long-term equilibrium between the two.