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传统的经济学理论认为,需求变化和资源在产业和部门间的转化是不重要的。而现代经济学认为优化了的或被正确选取了的产业结构是经济发展的积极因素。当今信息产业可认为是中国的主导产业,对经济贡献率很大。本文首先比较信息产业对实际GDP和名义GDP的贡献率,建立信息技术产业值和实际GDP间的回归方程,进行格兰杰因果检验得出信息技术是影响GDP的重要因素,同时建立资本、劳动、技术和GDP间的回归模型进行计量实证分析,利用时间序列数据估计信息技术对GDP的影响程度。其结论为,信息技术产业对经济的增长具有“加速器”和“催化剂”的作用。在此基础上,提出相关建议。
The traditional economic theory holds that changes in demand and the transformation of resources in industries and sectors are of no importance. However, modern economics considers that the optimized or correctly selected industrial structure is a positive factor in economic development. Today’s information industry can be regarded as China’s leading industry, a great contribution to the economy. This article first compares the contribution rate of information industry to real GDP and nominal GDP, establishes regression equation between IT industry value and real GDP, and conducts Granger causality test to conclude that information technology is an important factor affecting GDP. At the same time, capital, labor , Technology and GDP between the regression model for quantitative empirical analysis, the use of time series data to estimate the impact of information technology on GDP. The conclusion is that the information technology industry has an “accelerator” and a “catalyst” effect on economic growth. On this basis, put forward relevant suggestions.