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搜集闽北地区浦城和建瓯2个县(市)21 a(1980-2000年)中与早稻发生穗颈瘟相关的气象因子,采用逐步回归统计方法,对相关的气象因子进行筛选,找出引起早稻穗颈瘟的关键气象预测因子,其中浦城县的气象预测因子为5月上旬的水汽压、3月中旬的日照时数;建瓯市的气象预测因子为3月中旬的相对湿度和4月中旬的露日数。并建立了两地利用气象因子预测早稻穗颈瘟的数学模型。对该模型进行了2 a的预测验证,分别对两地2003年早稻穗颈瘟的发生进行预测,预测结果与实际穗颈瘟发生情况一致,发生等级均为轻.
The meteorological factors related to panicle blast occurred in early 21 a (1980-2000) in two counties (cities) of Pucheng and Jian’ou in northern Fujian were collected and screened by stepwise regression to find out the relevant meteorological factors The key meteorological factors that cause early stage rice blast are the meteorological forecast factor in Pucheng County, which is the vapor pressure in early May and the sunshine hours in mid-March. The meteorological factors in Jianou city are the relative humidity in mid-March and 4 The number of dew in mid-month. And established a mathematical model for predicting the early rice panicle blast with meteorological factors in both places. The model was validated for 2 years by predicting the occurrence of early stage rice panicle blast in 2003 and the predicted results were consistent with those of actual panicle blast. The occurrence grades were all mild.