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货币政策对我国的宏观经济运行起到了非常重要的作用。本文以2000—2012年间我国基准利率的频繁变动为切入点,通过使用ADF检验、HP滤波及回归拟合等方法,从实证分析的角度对利率、投资及GDP三者之间的关系进行数据检验。以宏观经济理论为基础,2000—2012年间经济数据为样本,采用回归及相关性检验的方法揭示利率的变化对社会投资及GDP的影响,同时考察社会投资及GDP数据序列本身存在的自相关因素。主要研究结论是:利率政策有滞后性特征,当期利率与前期利率对GDP的作用不同,不同时期的投资对促进经济增长的作用是有区别的。正确地选择和应用以利率为基础的货币政策,对于宏观经济的良性运作有重要的现实意义。
Monetary policy has played a very important role in China’s macro-economic operation. Based on the frequent changes of the benchmark interest rates in China from 2000 to 2012, this paper uses the methods of ADF test, HP filter and regression fitting to test the relationship between the interest rates, investment and GDP from the perspective of empirical analysis . Based on macroeconomic theory and economic data from 2000 to 2012, we use regression and correlation test to reveal the impact of the change of interest rate on social investment and GDP. At the same time, we examine the self-correlation factors of social investment and GDP data series . The main conclusions are: the lagging characteristics of interest rate policy, the current interest rate and the previous interest rate of GDP on the role of different investment in different periods to promote economic growth is different. Correctly choosing and applying interest rate-based monetary policy has important practical significance for the healthy operation of the macroeconomy.