论文部分内容阅读
2012年的猪价走势总体呈现一个下滑增长的态势,1月份开始从高位8.33元一路下滑,4月份和5月份一路探底,之后5、6、7、8月份一直呈现一个比较跌荡的态势。所以,整体来说,2012年的猪价走势用四个字概括,就是下滑和振荡。为什么会呈现这样的态势?我们认为,第一,2011年的养猪业高利润持续养殖量基数增长。根据国家所公布的生猪出栏数,2012年生猪出栏在5%的高位,今年整体生猪的养殖量跟往年比有比较大的增幅;另一方面,2011年的高利润使养殖户纷纷加大对生猪动保的投入,令2012年疫病情况相对以往缓和
In 2012, the trend of total pork price showed a downward trend. In January, it started to slide down from a high of 8.33 yuan and fell to the bottom in April and May. After that, there was a relatively unconvincing trend in May, June, July and August. Therefore, on the whole, the trend of the pork price in 2012 is summed up in four words: the slide and the oscillation. Why is there such a trend? We think, first, in 2011 the pig industry sustained high-profit breeding base growth. According to the number of slaughter pigs announced by the state, the live pigs slaughtered at 5% in 2012 will have a bigger increase than the previous year. On the other hand, the high profit in 2011 will increase the farmers’ The investment in live pig insurance made the epidemic milder in 2012 than in the past